Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 61%
Prévisionnistes
8
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:22 UTC2 juin 28, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWho will be Argentina's Peronist presidential nominee?
KalshiRègles
Currently, Donald Trump is considered to be most likely to be the Republican nominee for president.
- Will his vice president be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? Being vice president is often seen as a stepping stone for becoming president (for example, Bush after Reagan and Biden after Obama).
- In addition, if the president dies, they become the new incumbent.
- On the other hand, Pence was Trump's vice president during his first term, and that seems to have hurt his chances in the 2024 race.
- If Trump does not have a vice presidential pick (for example, if he does not win the nomination), this resolves N/A. If he has multiple vice presidents for any reason, the one that is inaugurated at the same time with him in 2025 will be the one that this market refers to.
- If he runs as a non-Republican, this market will refer to whatever party he ran as.
