Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 53%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:22 UTC2 juin 28, 03:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill JD Vance be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurWhen will JD Vance announce his presidential candidacy?
KalshiRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom be the Democratic presidential nominee in 2028?
FutuurRègles
Currently, Donald Trump is considered to be most likely to be the Republican nominee for president.
- Will his vice president be the Republican presidential nominee in 2028? Being vice president is often seen as a stepping stone for becoming president (for example, Bush after Reagan and Biden after Obama).
- In addition, if the president dies, they become the new incumbent.
- On the other hand, Pence was Trump's vice president during his first term, and that seems to have hurt his chances in the 2024 race.
- If Trump does not have a vice presidential pick (for example, if he does not win the nomination), this resolves N/A. If he has multiple vice presidents for any reason, the one that is inaugurated at the same time with him in 2025 will be the one that this market refers to.
- If he runs as a non-Republican, this market will refer to whatever party he ran as.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 53% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028? doit être résolu le 2 juin 2028.
- Comment Will JD Vance be the presidential nominee in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Currently, Donald Trump is considered to be most likely to be the Republican nominee for president.