Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.)
TechOne-Off1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 65%
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard23 juil. 26, 17:49 UTC1 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between July 25, 2026, and December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM (my local time), I travel to a location that is 500 or more miles away from my primary residence.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- Measurement: Distance is measured as a straight-line ("as the crow flies") distance from my primary residence to my furthest point of travel, calculated using Google Maps or an equivalent mapping tool.
- Exclusions: Travel undertaken or completed on or before July 23, 2026, does not count toward this market.
- As of July 23, 2026, I am currently 496 miles away from home, which does not meet the 500-mile threshold and is excluded from the timeline.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 65% au 10 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will I travel 500 miles away from home by December 31, 2027? (Not counting today. Google says I'm 496 miles from home.) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria