Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 50%
Prévisionnistes
0
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète26 mars 26, 15:14 UTC30 sept. 26, 15:09 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on buying a personal mini-air-conditioner, will I regret the purchase come summers-end?
Manifold MarketsWill I regret switching to public high school? [Decide My Life Ep. 1]
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PolymarketWhen will I regret not changing my gender
Manifold MarketsNew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
KalshiMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiRègles
I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.
- By September 2026, will I regret having done AFFINE instead of just finals (100%) or not having committed to AFFINE fully? (0%).
- It is noteworthy that AFFINE will likely have a year-long extension for 10 potential promising ASI alignment researchers, out of ~30.
- My chance is lower by committing less.
- Similarly, I may have worse final exam results, but the consequences of this don't seem very clear, given I don't care much which university I go to.
- If I regret nothing, that would be great and id just pick the one I'm closer to regretting.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CultureKALSHINew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
- Above 1.8 million96%
- Above 1.7 million96%
- Above 1.9 million89%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 18 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,9 k €
KALSHIWill the Kennedy Center be demolished in 2026?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Volume total
- 799,2 €
- Volume 24h
- 799,2 €
POLYMARKETIs Earth flat?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Volume total
- 50,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 558,3 €
POLYMARKETIdaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Yes+9.0pt58.4%
- No-9.0pt41.6%
- Volume total
- 7,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 542,3 €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+4.0pt79.2%
- Yes-4.0pt20.8%
- Volume total
- 20 k €
- Volume 24h
- 528,3 €
FORECASTEXWill University of Michigan rank first for public universities in 2027?
- No94%
- Yes6%
- Volume total
- 522,5 €
- Volume 24h
- 522,5 €
- Will Harvard tuition exceed $61,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- League City, Texas passes ballot measure approving the police use of Flock Cameras?
- MrBeast: 1 Billion subscribers
- Hermès Kelly: Highest auction sale price this year
- What countries will Pope Leo visit in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Will Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- Will the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I regret AFFINE or school? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 50% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I regret AFFINE or school? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I regret AFFINE or school? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will I regret AFFINE or school? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I will be doing the AFFINE alignment seminar for one month in a Czech castle, and also do my high school final exams the same time.