Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 56.2%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète18 juin 26, 22:58 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the sixth novel in the A Song Of Ice And Fire series be released before the death of George R. R. Martin?
Manifold MarketsWill @AidanFitzzz finally write his great american novel by EOY2031
Manifold Markets"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
PolymarketHighest grossing movie in 2026?
Polymarket# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
PolymarketNext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
KalshiRègles
I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.
- As of the creation of this market, I have written about 131k words (roughly 580 pages), and I estimate that I am about 90% done, but I think any novelist would tell you that these kinds of estimates are tricky.
- Progress has slowed to a crawl since my second child was born last October, but I am determined to finish it.
- Resolves YES if the final chapter is completed by December 31st, 2026 Otherwise Resolves NO
- Some useful context:
- I have finished four first drafts of previous novels, ranging in length from ~60k to ~120k words.
Marchés ouverts
EntertainmentPOLYMARKET"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" total domestic gross by September 30?
- 950 - 960m+18.0pt69.6%
- 940 - 950m-16.5pt26.5%
- 970m++1.1pt2%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 319,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 98 k €
KALSHINext James Bond film: Actor cast as James Bond
- Jack Lowden+25.0pt67%
- Callum Turner-3.0pt21%
- Jack Barton-8.0pt20%
+27 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
POLYMARKETNext James Bond actor?
- Jack Lowden+23.4pt48%
- No Bond chosen-6.3pt17%
- Jack Barton-3.5pt9%
+21 résultats de plus
KALSHIPractical Magic 2 · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 45-55.0pt18%
- Above 50-59.0pt4%
- Above 55-54.0pt2%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 80 k €
KALSHIPrimetime · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Above 4599%
- Above 5099%
- Above 5599%
+10 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 130,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 45,3 k €
KALSHIBig Brother Season 28 · Winner
- Yash Patel+4.0pt27.7%
- Barrett Pfeiffer17%
- Drew Campbell+1.0pt13.4%
+14 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4 M €
- # of views of MrBeast video on day 3?
- Oscar Winner: Best Picture
- Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- Grand Theft Auto VI: Release date
- # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?
- Oscar nominees: Best Picture
- Runner · Rotten Tomatoes score
- Taylor Swift: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
- Emmy Winner: Outstanding Comedy Series
- Bad Bunny: Highest daily view count (September 7, 2026 - September 13, 2026)
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 56% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will I finish the first draft of my novel by the end of the year? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I've been working on an epic historical fantasy novel for several years.