Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 95.4%
Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète6 févr. 24, 00:14 UTC13 févr. 99, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Sam Altman Run For President of the USA by 2060?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, who will represent the Democratic Party for President of the USA?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump keep the position of the President of the USA for all of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWho will run for President of Brazil?
KalshiWill Bernie Sanders run for President in 2028?
KalshiWill Joe Manchin run for president in 2028?
KalshiRègles
Resolves NO if I die or decide that I don't want to run.
- Resolves YES if I run for president (has to be in major, trustworthy news source, I can't just say "I'm running for president lol")
- This is not a trick question--I was born in the USA and will be eligible to run once I am 35 years old.
- I think I want to try running but I'm not sure yet.
- I won't bet in this market.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator's IRL friends are aware of this market and can resolve it in the event of the creator's death.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHINH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Stefany Shaheen+82.9pt100%
- Maura Sullivan-82.9pt0%
- Carleigh Beriont-2.1pt0%
- Volume total
- 847,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 668,8 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.1pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.4pt3%
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-2.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.5pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-2.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.9pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I ever run for president of the USA ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I ever run for president of the USA sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I ever run for president of the USA doit être résolu le 13 février 2099.
- Comment Will I ever run for president of the USA est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves NO if I die or decide that I don't want to run.