Manifold MarketsFerméSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréCe marché s'est résolu: Yes (98.5%)
Résolu: 15 août 2026, 11:28
Résolution vérifiée par le fournisseur
CoinRithm dispose d'éléments du fournisseur pour le gagnant et l'heure de règlement de ce marché.
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 98.5%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 jours
Obsolète28 juil. 24, 18:194 août 26, 21:59
Chronologie des Probabilités
Yes98.5%
No1.5%
98.5%
1.5%
Règles
I’m tubefed and bedridden, suffering from an undisclosed severe chronic illness (not terminal), although some people die, especially at risk of infections.
- M20 previously healthy.
- Disease is too rare to have prognosis statistics, but has a high rate of suicide also (since no treatment or cure).
- I obviously won’t bet here.
- 2 years time is 2026 August 1.
Marchés ouverts
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETSkin cancer vaccine BLA submitted by June 30, 2027?
- Yes+1.0pt87.1%
- No-1.0pt12.9%
- Volume total
- 32,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 15,4 k €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 1,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 15 k €
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.1pt97%
- Yes-0.1pt3%
- Volume total
- 15,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 8,9 k €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 3000-1.0pt96%
- Above 4000-1.0pt81%
- Above 6000+5.0pt29%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 782,3 k €
POLYMARKETHeidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
- December 3172%
- October 3133%
- November 3033%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,5 k €
KALSHIWhen will Heidi Overton be confirmed as Commissioner of the FDA?
- Before Aug 1, 202774%
- Before Apr 1, 202767%
- Before Jan 1, 202767%
+2 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 3,7 k €
- FDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages qualify as hemp under federal law?
- New pandemic in 2026?
- Measles cases in U.S. by August 31?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola disease case before October?
- Hantavirus vaccine in 2026?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Brepocitinib by Priovant Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- When will Beam Therapeutics submit a BLA for Risto-cel?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I be alive in 2 years time? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 99% au 16 août 2026.
- Quand Will I be alive in 2 years time? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I be alive in 2 years time? doit être résolu le 4 août 2026.
- Comment Will I be alive in 2 years time? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I’m tubefed and bedridden, suffering from an undisclosed severe chronic illness (not terminal), although some people die, especially at risk of infections.