Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 92.1%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète30 mars 25, 10:39 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Magnus Carlsen play a classical game against Hans Niemann before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWho will be the next chess player to cross 2800 Elo points (FIDE classical, not live; to exceed 2800)
Manifold MarketsNext Prime Minister of Romania?
PolymarketPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
KalshiTitled Tuesday Winner: Sep 8
KalshiRègles
Derivative of this question, using the same criteria (except for the date):
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/tempo/will-hans-niemann-be-a-top-10-chess?play=true)If the linked question resolves YES at any time before the end of market close, this market resolves YES.
- If the market closes and the conditions for the linked question are not fulfilled, resolves NO.
- Since this is a very objective market, I will bet on it.
- Update 2025-06-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): * The December 2026 FIDE rating list will be the definitive source for resolution, even if it is published after the market closes (e.g., in January 2027).
- If it is clear Hans will not be in the top 10 by the end of 2026, the market may resolve NO immediately at its close time.
Marchés ouverts
ChessPOLYMARKETNext Prime Minister of Romania?
- Alexandru Nazare-4.3pt25%
- Sorin Grindeanu-1.6pt20%
- Eugen Tomac-5.7pt7%
+33 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIPrime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+4.0pt44.5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu+2.0pt24.4%
- Naftali Bennett+1.0pt6.7%
+15 résultats de plus
KALSHIFIDE World Chess Championship 2026 Winner
- Javokhir Sindarov+1.0pt66.7%
- Gukesh Dommaraju-4.0pt26.7%
- Fabiano Caruana0.9%
+6 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHITitled Tuesday Winner: Sep 8
- Liem Le99%
- Hans Niemann+73.0pt79%
- Alireza Firouzja+18.0pt19%
+66 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 13,5 k €
KALSHITitled Tuesday Top 8: Sep 8
- Jeffery Xiong+81.0pt99%
- Hikaru Nakamura+54.0pt99%
- Jan-Krzysztof Duda+72.0pt99%
+66 résultats de plus
KALSHITitled Tuesday Top 5: Sep 8
- Hikaru Nakamura+78.0pt99%
- Hans Niemann+82.0pt98%
- Dmitry Andreikin+92.0pt98%
+66 résultats de plus
- Will the AfD be part of a German state government in 2026?
- Which parties will be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?
- Titled Tuesday Top 3: Sep 8
- Prime Minister of Sweden after the general election?
- 46th FIDE Chess Olympiad Women's Tournament Winner
- Titled Tuesday Top 8: September 15
- Party of Next Prime Minister of Romania?
- Who will be a part of the next government of Israel?
- FIDE Standard Top Women Chess Players: Top 10 Rated in December 2026
- Titled Tuesday Top 5: September 15
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Hans Niemann be a top 10 chess player before EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Derivative of this question, using the same criteria (except for the date):