Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.9%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète16 juin 23, 19:22 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Neil deGrasse Tyson become vegan before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 3 American cities reach a population of 1 million for the first time before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich US state will have African immigrants make up the largest % of its population by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill West Virginia's population grow in 2026?
KalshiCanada's population Up or Down this year?
PolymarketElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Inspired by a $400 bet to the affirmative by Dale Vince on longbets.
- I believe the bet is about the adult UK population, so here on manifold we'll go based on that.
- Vince's argument:
- Veganism is growing rapidly in the UK - Sainsbury's, one of the country's leading supermarkets says 25% of the adult population will live on a plant-based diet by 2025.
- Pollsters Ipsos Mori believe 38m adults - over 50% of adults will be vegan by 2034.
- I believe the trend is speeding up, so half of UK adults will be vegan by 1st Jan 2030.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-2.0pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
- <40-5.5pt12.1%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 28,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
- Volume total
- 6,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 5,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Hurricane95%
- Canada / Canadian89%
- Tariff86%
+13 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,1 k €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 18,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 989,4 €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,4 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+1.5pt80.2%
- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
- Volume total
- 136,2 k €
- Volume 24h
- 247 €
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will half the UK population be vegan before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Inspired by a $400 bet to the affirmative by Dale Vince on longbets.