Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 65.9%
Prévisionnistes
49
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète19 oct. 22, 01:07 UTC1 janv. 33, 02:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Google’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Movies: #1 search
KalshiGoogle’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Athletes: #1 search
KalshiGoogle’s Year in Search 2026 Global - Actors: #1 search
KalshiWill Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Google Search still be the most popular search engine by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market will solve to YES if by Dec 2032, Google Search market share measured by GS Statscounter is lower than 60%.
- Market share as of Oct 2022:
- [image]I am increasingly surprised by AI advances that I think Google's moat could be under attack soon, either by startups or by Apple.
- The pace of copycats to breakthrough models like AlphaFold, GPT-3 and Dalle-2 makes me think people are overestimating how defensible is artificial inteligence breakthroughs.
- Creator policy: I won't bet.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 66% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2033.
- Comment Will Google Search market share be lower than 60% by Dec 2032? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will solve to YES if by Dec 2032, Google Search market share measured by GS Statscounter is lower than 60%.