Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 14:53 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 60.8%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète11 févr. 26, 11:09 UTC24 mars 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
If Germany's 2025 election votes are (fully or partially) recounted, will BSW reach 5% of votes?
Manifold MarketsWill any court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
KalshiWill a US court rule that the 2020 election was fraudulent?
PolymarketWill any court rule that the 2024 election was fraudulent?
KalshiIf asked, will the German Constitutional Court decide to ban the AfD?
Manifold MarketsWill the German Constitutional Court restrict Björn Höcke's basic rights?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Sahra Wagenknecht's BSW party intends to call Germany's Federal Constinutional Court (Bundesverfassungsgericht) after the party very narrowly missed out on reaching the necessary 5% of votes in the last election to get seats in the federal parliament.
- What will be the outcome with regards to a recount?
- If the court rules that BSW gets parliament seats without a recount, or something similar, this still resolves "No".
- The question only refers to the court's ruling in terms of a recount.
- (So whether that recount ends up happening is also irrelevant)
- See this other market for the outcome of a recount if it ends up taking place: https://manifold.markets/ADings/if-germanys-2025-election-votes-are