Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 70.5%
Prévisionnistes
39
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète22 avr. 23, 04:22 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the FDA approve VERVE-102?
KalshiThe FDA will approve a drug for the treatment of senescence (aging) before the end of the decade (before 2030)
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve Viagra as a treatment for Alzheimer's before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI that diagnoses patients better than an average doctor prior to 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
KalshiWill the FDA approve retatrutide?
KalshiRègles
Capabilities: take history, create treatment plan, prescribe medications, order tests, etc. all without human intervention or approval.
- Covers >50% of typical primary care volume.
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 71% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will FDA approve an “AI doctor” for primary care before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Capabilities: take history, create treatment plan, prescribe medications, order tests, etc. all without human intervention or approval.