Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 98.2%
Prévisionnistes
95
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète25 mars 23, 11:43 UTC31 déc. 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Emmanuel Macron ever become President of France again after his first two terms?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the first female president of the United States cease being president?
Manifold MarketsEmmanuel Macron to finish his presidential term in France?
FutuurWill the next president of France be from a left-wing party
Manifold MarketsMacron out by which date?
PolymarketWill Macron call a referendum by December 31?
PolymarketRègles
From https://metaculus.com//questions/15621/macron-no-longer-president-before-2027/ In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial [pension reform bill](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/16/emmanuel-macron-uses-special-powers-to-force-pension-reform-france), which he pushed through without a final vote by the [National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-invokes-nuclear-option-to-force-through-his-pensions-reform-in-huge-political-setback/).
- This move has sparked [nationwide protests](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65057249) and led to some of the worst street violence in recent years.
- The reform aims to raise the minimum retirement age from [62 to 64](https://www.nytimes.com/article/france-pension-strikes-macron-explainer.html) to improve the financial sustainability of the French pension system.
- Strikes and demonstrations have caused widespread disruption in France, with at least [one million](https://www.npr.org/2023/03/24/1165759889/more-than-1-million-demonstrate-across-france-against-pension-reforms) people participating in protests at one point.
- Macron's approval rating has dropped as low as [28%](https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20230322-macron-breaks-silence-on-france-s-bitter-pension-battle-the-key-takeaways), as two-thirds of the French population oppose the law.
- As the [Financial Times](https://www.ft.com/content/b78f2a89-1062-4423-a4ba-fb4cdc56c683) points out: > French anger transcends pensions and Macron’s high-handedness.
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 98% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Emmanuel Macron cease being President of France before 2027? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : From https://metaculus.com//questions/15621/macron-no-longer-president-before-2027/ In March 2023, the French President, Emmanuel Macron, is facing increasing pressure over his controversial [pension reform bill](https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/mar/16/emmanuel-macron-uses-special-powers-to-force-pension-reform-france), which he pushed through without a final vote by the [National Assembly, invoking Article 49.3 of the French Constitution](https://www.politico.eu/article/macron-invokes-nuclear-option-to-force-through-his-pensions-reform-in-huge-political-setback/).