Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 94.2% au 26 octobre 2026.

Quand Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will Elon Musk create the first AGI by 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.

One-OffIA Tech3a

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Prévision communautaire actuelle

Non 94.2%

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 14 heures

Obsolète

25 sept. 23, 00:20 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Resolves YES if by the creator's best judgement, a Elon-Musk-controlled company creates an AGI by 2030 before any other company.

Tesla AI and xAI are the main AI labs to monitor, but any Elon-controlled company counts.
Also resolves YES if a nonprofit or government program led by Musk creates the first AGI by 2030, or if Elon Musk personally develops the first AGI.
Resolves NO if a non-Musk organization creates AGI first by 2030 or if AGI does not exist by 2030.
Judgement on whether a model constitutes AGI will be at the discretion of the creator, who will take into account benchmark performance, expert opinion, and any other evidence deemed to be credible.