Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be mentioned or quoted in the White House briefing room within 5 years?
Politique américaineOne-Off2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 60.7%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:23 UTC1 juin 29, 03:59 UTC
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From: https://x.com/_ArnaudS_/status/1793209848953233872, clarifying Tyler Cowen's claims.
- Resolves YES if either:
- An invited participant clearly and unambiguously quotes Eliezer Yudkowsky.
- An identifying percentage of his name passes any invited participant's lips for any reason.
- Doesn't matter what the context is.
- Resolves NO if it doesn't.
