Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade?
One-OffSociety & Culture3aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 62.9%
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Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 minutes
13 déc. 22, 07:27 UTC1 janv. 30, 07:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves subjectively.
- What this might include is a noticeable split into e.g. longtermist and neartermist.
- For example, with a large (>10%) minority of members of either groups stopping to identify as part of broader EA generally.
- Open to hashing out more objective criteria.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 63% au 17 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Effective Altruism noticably segregate into multiple movements within this decade? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves subjectively.