Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 91.6%
Prévisionnistes
96
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète27 déc. 22, 16:01 UTC1 janv. 30, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich celebrities/public figures will serve prison time as a result of evidence from either Epstein or Diddy files?
Manifold MarketsWill Elon Musk serve any prison sentence before November 2032?
Manifold MarketsDonald Trump to serve as president for 9+ years by end of 2030
SmarketsTrump To Serve Second Term In Full
SmarketsTrump to serve his full term?
FutuurRègles
Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence.
- It doesn't count if he is held while awaiting trial or sentencing.
- House arrest also doesn't count, it must be an official prison.
- However, it DOES count if he is held in prison awaiting execution or similar.
- Resolves NO if the above hasn't happened before 1 Jan 2030, 0000hrs UTC.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
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- Volume 24h
- 693 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+1.4pt96%
- $25M+2.0pt94%
- $50M+5.0pt90%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 résultats de plus
KALSHI2028 Republican presidential nominee
- J.D. Vance44.1%
- Marco Rubio20.6%
- Ron DeSantis4.9%
+35 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 54,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 266,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
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- 248,7 k €
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will Donald Trump serve any prison sentence before 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if Donald Trump spends any positive amount of time in prison while serving a sentence.