Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 93.3%
Prévisionnistes
23
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète2 août 23, 03:57 UTC1 janv. 35, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Donald Trump die?
Manifold MarketsIf Donald Trump wins the election, will he die while in office?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
Manifold MarketsAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
PolymarketYoon out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketLuigi Mangione out of custody before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
As opposed to being under secret service protection.
- This likely would mean he was convicted and is under house arrest, but doesn't have total freedom of movement.
Marchés ouverts
US Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+1.0pt14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 592,5 k €
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio+0.6pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt99%
- $25M+3.5pt96%
- $50M+4.5pt91%
+4 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.4pt49.1%
- October 31-1.0pt29.3%
- September 30-2.0pt12.1%
+17 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 220,4 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party-1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 24,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 214,6 k €
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Rhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Presidential Election Winner 2028
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- IA-01 House winner?
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- 2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump die while in Secret Service custody? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump die while in Secret Service custody? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump die while in Secret Service custody? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2035.
- Comment Will Donald Trump die while in Secret Service custody? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : As opposed to being under secret service protection.