Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.9%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 45 minutes
En retard22 août 25, 21:56 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the first major multimodal DeepSeek release be video oriented and suited for robot control?
Manifold MarketsV4.1+ Pro (DeepSeek) release date
Manifold MarketsWill DeepSeek v5 release before 2028
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A qualifying model must be independent (not open-sourced) and sold commercially, whether via API access or subscription.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- 225,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 157 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 348,3 k €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 73% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Will DeepSeek release a proprietary model for sale before EOY 2026.