Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes?
ChinaOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 59.1%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 17:53 UTC31 mai 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.
- Settlement is May 31, 2029 — the close pushes ~5 months past year-end so the producer's full-year financial report and December 2028 monthly print are well-published before resolution.
- China Hongqiao is the world's largest single primary aluminum producer. 2024 capacity 6.46 Mt; constrained by China's 45 Mt national smelter cap.
- The 6.4 Mt strike for 2028 reflects the run-rate; absent capacity-cap relaxation in Beijing's 15th Five-Year Plan, sustained output above this level requires utilisation gains rather than new capacity.
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- China Hongqiao Group annual results announcement (HKEx 1378) http://en.hongqiaochina.com/
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 59% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? doit être résolu le 31 mai 2029.
- Comment Will China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 exceed 6.4 million tonnes? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if China Hongqiao Group's primary aluminum production for calendar year 2028 (January 1 – December 31, 2028) exceeds 6.4 million tonnes.