La taxe sur la fortune des milliardaires de Californie sera-t-elle adoptée ?
One-OffPolitiquePolitique américaineÉlectionEntreprises et affaires2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 73.1%
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456
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 minutes
25 oct. 25, 19:38 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will The California Billionaire Wealth Tax pass if it is on the ballot in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the California billionaire wealth tax appear on the ballot?
KalshiWill California’s billionaire tax take effect?
KalshiCalifornia wealth tax defeats opposing propositions?
PolymarketWill California pass a wealth tax referendum in 2026?
PredictItAndy Burnham to announce wealth tax before December 2026
Manifold MarketsRègles
The "2026 Billionaire Tax Act" is a proposed initiative that would confiscate 5% of California billionaires wealth.
- https://calmatters.org/health/2025/10/billionaire-tax-initiative/
- Will a ballot measure that is basically this get on the ballot and pass in California by EoY 2026? Resolves YES if so, NO otherwise.
- Update 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if the ballot measure gets on the ballot and passes, even if it is subsequently held up by a court injunction and not actually in effect by end of 2026.
- The resolution is based on whether it passes, not whether it takes effect.
- Update 2026-01-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will not resolve N/A under any circumstances.