Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040? ?

Manifold Markets cote No à 84.2% au 29 octobre 2026.

Quand Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040? sera-t-il résolu ?

Will at least 1% of new car sales be flying cars by 2040? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2041.

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Non 84.2%

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Type de question

binary

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

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Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 6 heures

Obsolète

30 nov. 23, 17:51 UTC1 janv. 41, 05:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

Within any single country with a population of at least 10 million people.

"Flying cars" are herein defined as vehicles which are legal to operate on the roads of the country, and which also can be operated as legal aircraft in that same country.
The two operations modes are not required to be covered by the same license.
No type certificate, production certificate, or equivalent is required (although they are expected and hoped for).
Fleet operators renting vehicles out to the public would qualify if the sales quantity is met.
An example of a "yes" resolution in the US would be a street-legal car which is also legal to fly under 14 CFR 23, 25, 27, 91, 103, or equivalent, and can be operated by anyone with a driver's license and appropriate flight certificate (or none, in the case of §103 and/or potential self-driving capability).