Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 50.4%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète19 mai 23, 15:25 UTC1 janv. 33, 00:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Astrobotic's Griffin Lander land (mostly successfully) on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill the first successful Artemis crewed lunar landing be done using a Blue Origin lander?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX land on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Cristiano Ronaldo play for the Portugal National Team again?
KalshiWill Messi play for the Argentina National Team again?
KalshiNext England National Team Head Coach
PolymarketRègles
NASA has just selected National Team's proposal for the second human landing system.
- They intend to use it with Artemis V, which is currently scheduled for 2029.
- Will the lander be ready in time? If not, they may opt to use another Starship HLS.
- If the lander isn't ready yet and they use a Starship mission but call it "Artemis VI", skipping over "Artemis V", then this market resolves to No. The intention is to ask whether the fifth Artemis mission uses National Team's lander.
- If there's an "interim" mission used for Artemis 3, such as LEO docking and reentry, then this market applies to Artemis 6 instead of 5.
- Basically asking, will National Team's lander be ready for a mission after the first two official HLS crew landings?
Marchés ouverts
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 103,1 k €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Volume total
- 57,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 57,4 k €
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Volume total
- 817,9 k €
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 50% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2033.
- Comment Will Artemis V use National Team's lander to land on the moon? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : NASA has just selected National Team's proposal for the second human landing system.