Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 74.9%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète23 avr. 26, 08:16 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Artemis III launches before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhat milestones will Artemis 3 achieve?
Manifold MarketsWhich cities will Waymo launch in by December 31?
PolymarketRocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?
PolymarketChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
PolymarketWill Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).
- NASA is officially targeting early 2028 for launch.
- Artemis II (crewed lunar flyby) successfully flew April 1–11, 2026.
- Artemis III (HLS test in Earth orbit) is targeted for mid-2027 and must fly first.
- Both HLS landers (Starship HLS, Blue Moon) still need to complete human-rating certification.
- Resolves YES if the Artemis IV SLS/Orion stack lifts off from the pad (T-0, engine ignition and liftoff) on or before 23:59 UTC on December 31, 2028, regardless of mission success afterward.
Marchés ouverts
Tech
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 8pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 944,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 721,8 k €
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,442.97 target
- No73%
- Yes27%
- Volume total
- 620 k €
- Volume 24h
- 536 k €
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume total
- 514,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- BTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- BTC price on Sep 9, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- Highest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2028.
- Comment Will Artemis IV launch by end of December 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Artemis IV is planned to be NASA's first crewed lunar landing since Apollo 17 in 1972, sending four astronauts to lunar orbit aboard an SLS/Orion stack, with two crew descending to the lunar South Pole via a commercial Human Landing System (SpaceX Starship HLS or Blue Origin Blue Moon).