Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 86.6%
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète3 janv. 23, 12:16 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any USA state ban self driving cars by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill any US state ban the morning after pill before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill suicide become allowed in any US state by the end of 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill any portion of Greenland become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Alberta become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExWill any portion of Panama become a US state, territory, or other federal jurisdiction by December 31, 2028?
ForecastExRègles
The right to use contraception is currently protected by previous Supreme Court rulings, which means that states do not have the power to ban: https://reproductiverights.org/sites/default/files/documents/factsheets/Constitutional-Protection-for-the-Right-to-Contraception-Fact-Sheet2.pdf
- The overturning of Roe v Wade has prompted many to fear that access to contraception may come under threat: https://reproductiverights.org/sites/default/files/documents/factsheets/Constitutional-Protection-for-the-Right-to-Contraception-Fact-Sheet2.pdf
- For the purposes of this market, contraception will include condoms, oral contraceptives, IUD or other implants, but NOT the morning-after pill.
- If any one of these contraceptive methods is banned, with the ban coming into effect before 2030, I will resolve YES.
- If the sale or provision of contraceptives is banned, I will resolve YES even if using contraceptives is not criminalized.
- If the ban applies only to a subgroup (like unmarried couples) I will resolve YES (except for bans concerning minors, who already have spotty access to contraception).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any US state ban contraception by 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any US state ban contraception by 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any US state ban contraception by 2030? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2029.
- Comment Will any US state ban contraception by 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The right to use contraception is currently protected by previous Supreme Court rulings, which means that states do not have the power to ban: https://reproductiverights.org/sites/default/files/documents/factsheets/Constitutional-Protection-for-the-Right-to-Contraception-Fact-Sheet2.pdf