Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 3% or more and lose?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 05:41 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Obsolète8 oct. 26, 08:14 UTC30 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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GeminiRègles
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate leads the final polling average for their race by 3.00% or more and loses.
- The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
