Will any US Senate candidate have 50.1% or more in the polling average and lose?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection15j
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60.5%
Prévisionnistes
11
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète8 oct. 26, 19:40 UTC10 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any US Senate candidate lead the polling average by 5% or more and lose?
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PolymarketWill Ken Paxton win the Texas general election for US Senate in 2026?
ForecastExRègles
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2026-midterm-election-polls-model
- Resolves YES if in any 2026 US Senate election on the Silver Bulletin average, a candidate has 50.1% or more of the vote and loses.
- The final polling average on silver bulletin will be used.
