Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 24 oct. 2026, 15:00 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 87.3%
Prévisionnistes
20
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète30 août 26, 18:29 UTC31 mars 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable's output token price hit in 2026?
PolymarketWhen will the next Claude Fable be released?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Fable released before Anthropic IPO?
Manifold MarketsClaude Fable 5.2+: Output Token Price Debut?
PolymarketRègles
In AI 2027, at the end of 2026, the leading AI lab released a model dubbed Agent 1 mini, which was 10x cheaper than the previous state of the art Agent 1.
- Claude Fable's benchmark scores are mostly above the level predicted for Agent 1 in AI 2027 (outscoring the projections for OS World and Cybench, with Mythos Preview scoring similarly to the projected METR 80% time horizon, though somewhat below).
- This market seeks to track if a model of approximately Agent 1 mini capabilities is released around the time AI 2027 projected.
- This market will resolve YES if any AI is released that scores at least as well as Claude Fable 5 on at least 8 out of 10 of the following benchmarks, and whose output tokens are at least 10x cheaper than Claude Fable 5's, by the end of March 2027.
- The model must be released by the end of March to the public, but resolution may happen later due to the benchmarks being run later.
- Resolution sources are included with each benchmark, though these are subject to change for now
