Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 57.2%
Prévisionnistes
28
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
14 mars 23, 19:28 UTC1 janv. 30, 08:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a frontier model be found to have exfiltrated its weights and run an outside copy of itself before Q2 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill a human-created pathogen infect at least 10,000 people by 2030?
Manifold MarketsIf there is scientific consensus we've discovered the first extraterrestrial life form, will it be silicon based?
Manifold Marketswill humanity make contact with another intelligent life form / civilisation?
Manifold MarketsWill a humanoid robot beat a ranked top #10 tennis player by EOY 2027?
Manifold Markets10. Brain-computer interfaces transition to mainstream technology, Neuralink position in lead shakier [See full title!]
Manifold MarketsRègles
In order to qualify, it must:
- Have been designed on an intellectual level, with humans understanding how it works.
- (A mother having a baby doesn't count.)
- Clearly be an entirely new human creation, not a modified natural thing.
- Taking inspiration from nature is ok.
- (Genetically engineering an existing bacterium to do something slightly different doesn't count, but it's ok if the new life form uses DNA, has ribosomes, runs on ATP, etc.)
