Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 80.6%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 19 heures
Obsolète10 août 26, 11:01 UTC5 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolution criteria: this market resolves YES if, as of December 31, 2026 (the RESOLUTION_DEADLINE), either Anthropic's or OpenAI's annualized revenue run rate exceeds the COMBINED annualized revenue run rate of Tesla, SpaceX, and X (Twitter) as of the same date.
- Annualized revenue run rate is defined as the most recent quarter's or month's revenue multiplied out to a full year (quarterly revenue times 4, or monthly revenue times 12), or the most recently reported ARR figure from the company itself or credible reporting, whichever is more current and specific.
- Musk combined total is the sum of Tesla's, SpaceX's, and X's individually computed run rates as described above.
- Sources: official company filings and earnings reports where available (Tesla and SpaceX are both public companies as of 2026 and report quarterly).
- For figures not officially disclosed (Anthropic, OpenAI, X), credible reporting from major financial or technology outlets (Bloomberg, The Information, Reuters, CNBC, or similar) is used, weighting the most recent, most specific, and most corroborated figures most heavily.
- Resolves NO if neither Anthropic's nor OpenAI's run rate exceeds the combined Musk total as of the deadline.
