AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
IAOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 83%
Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète18 janv. 25, 07:09 UTC1 janv. 30, 06:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves the same as the Metaculus question:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/ai-warning-signs/31330/ai-viral-self-replication-before-2030/
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as YES if according to credible sources, an LLM or foundation model–based AI system replicates itself onto 50 or more devices.
- This question will resolve as NO if no such event occurs before January 1, 2030.
- The replication must be autonomous and must not rely on continued human control.
