Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 76.3%
Oui 76.3%Prévisionnistes
25
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 minutes
16 déc. 23, 23:19 UTC2 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By end of 2028, will there be a global AI organization, responsible for AI safety and regulations?
Manifold MarketsWhich of the following will be true about the next major AI breakthrough? (after test-time compute)
Manifold MarketsLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
To elaborate on the “solely responsible” part, training data created by humans is permitted, but the AI must create a novel structure or insight with human assistance limited to inititalization and prompting.
- The AI itself cannot simply BE the breakthrough, and the breakthrough must go beyond the structure of the AI that creates it.
- This question resolves to YES if an AI has created a significant breakthrough in AI by the start of 2031, otherwise it resolves to NO.