Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 94.9%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 21 minutes
9 avr. 26, 18:47 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiWill SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy December 31, 2026, Apple will acquire, merge with, or otherwise legally take control of Anthropic.
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla merge with SpaceX by December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill McCormick merge with Unilever Foods by which date?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if by 2026-12-31 a completed transaction results in Aleph Alpha and Cohere operating under common corporate control (>50% voting power).
- Signed-but-unclosed agreements, minority stakes, partnerships, and asset-only deals do not count.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volume total
- 225,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 157 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 348,3 k €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 95% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Aleph Alpha and Cohere merge in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if by 2026-12-31 a completed transaction results in Aleph Alpha and Cohere operating under common corporate control (>50% voting power).