Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 95.4%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète19 juin 23, 15:47 UTC2 janv. 30, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Règles
This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .
- It should resolve the same in all states of the world.
- In other words, any price discrepancy is intended to be an arbitrage opportunity.
- It is meant to highlight the absurdity of the position, and make whatever AI risk messaging is happening more expensive.
- [link preview]
Marchés ouverts
AI
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 95% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2030.
- Comment Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This is an intentional duplicate of https://manifold.markets/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8 .