Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 71.7%
Prévisionnistes
34
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète1 déc. 25, 14:07 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Photo or video of any of twelve famous Americans playing pickleball through 2027
Manifold MarketsPhoto or video of Zuck playing pickleball through 2027
Manifold MarketsWill leap seconds still exist on 31 December 2050?
Manifold MarketsTop Text to Video AI this week
KalshiWhich company has the best Image-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of November?
PolymarketRègles
e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.
- Being able to detect like >50% of entirely AI generated photos and videos would resolve this market YES.
- If it's unclear, resolves to a poll.
- Should be pretty obvious though I hope
- Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers current AI detectors to meaningfully exist for current GenAI, as there are tools that mostly work and AI content is often detectable to the eye at >50% accuracy.
- This suggests the bar for "meaningful existence" in 2028 is similar - tools that mostly work with >50% detection rate.