Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 10:30 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
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Mis à jour il y a 51 minutes
En retard22 déc. 22, 05:13 UTC1 janv. 31, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the first RISUG procedure become commercially available?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a commercially available LLM-based self-driving system by EoY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we have AGI before commercially available and viable flying cars???
Manifold MarketsWill we get commercially available flying cars before Dallas wins another super bowl?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
A bunch of companies, most notably Mojo, are trying to build and sell AR contact lenses.
- Will these devices succeed?
- Resolution criteria:
- The device has to be purchasable by any consumer in the US, though if there's a wait-list this still resolved YES.
- The device must be "useful".
- This will be based on my judgment, but for an example of some disqualifying things: <10m battery life, so low res it can only display a clock, etc