Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 26 oct. 2026, 07:03 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 65.8%
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4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète19 juin 26, 08:47 UTC31 déc. 35, 23:59 UTC
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Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a major space agency announce the discovery of extraterrestrial life on Europa or Enceladus before 2035
Manifold MarketsWill the first sample of Mars be returned to Earth by robotic means?
Manifold MarketsWill 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill 1000 kg of Moon material have been mined and returned to Earth by the end of 2065?
Manifold MarketsWill The US Have A Lunar Nuclear Reactor on the Moon by the end of 2035
Manifold MarketsWill there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2031?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market asks whether a space agency from Asia — primarily CNSA (China) or JAXA (Japan) — will be the first to successfully return a scientifically intact, uncontaminated sample from the Martian system (Mars itself or either of its moons, Phobos and Deimos) to Earth, ahead of any Western agency (NASA, ESA, a joint NASA/ESA effort, or other Western agencies such as CSA).
- The geopolitical landscape of Martian sample return has shifted dramatically in early 2026.
- NASA's Mars Sample Return (MSR) program, a joint effort with ESA to retrieve samples already collected by the Perseverance rover, was effectively cancelled by a US Congressional spending bill in January 2026, leaving Perseverance's tubes sitting on Mars with no confirmed retrieval plan.
- Two Asian missions are now the primary contenders:
- JAXA MMX (Martian Moons eXploration): launched late 2026, targeting Phobos sample return to Earth in 2031.
- Hardware has already arrived at Tanegashima for launch preparation.
