Prévision communautaire actuelle
Non 78%
Prévisionnistes
52
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète29 déc. 22, 09:32 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
When will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWill someone run DOOM on a quantum computer by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiHow many people will Neuralink have implanted in 2026?
KalshiRègles
Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.
- Will a quantum computer factor a number greater than 31 by 2026?
- Must use a non-classical algorithm like Quantum Fourier Transform/Shor's Algorithm to count, and without pre-compilation.
- Update 2026-01-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on whether a quantum computer factors a number greater than 31 by the end of 2026 (not before 2026 begins).
Marchés ouverts
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,3 M €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,1 M €
- Volume 24h
- 802,6 k €
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 736,5 k €
- Volume 24h
- 585,6 k €
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 78% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Background: A 2019 paper showed the IBM Q System One was able to factor 15 and 21, but unable to factor 35 due to accumulating errors.