Will a major presidential candidate call something "based" by 2048?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 69.8%
Prévisionnistes
43
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète5 août 23, 23:45 UTC2 janv. 49, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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PolymarketRègles
If a candidate who polls at over 20% in a Democratic or Republican primary or in a general election according to polling aggregators RealClearPolitics and Fivethirtyeight (or suitable alternative if both are defunct) uses the adjective "based" to describe something or someone, including themselves, in official communications, resolve to YES.
- Otherwise, resolve to NO.
