In 2028, will democrats have a major presidential candidate from the centrist wing of the party?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection1a
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète25 déc. 23, 14:31 UTC30 juin 28, 20:59 UTC
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I will take "Centrist wing of the party" to mean "among the 40% most right wing democratic congressmen per dw-nominate".
- If it's a real outsider without a dw nominate score, will try to clarify as I go.
- (For comparison, Biden was about the 50th percentile in the 11th congress, so this would require someone slightly more conservative than Biden relative to the party average).
- "Major presidential candidate" means one of the top three candidates in the primary by delegate shares (conditional on winning at least one state).
- (Since this may end up being mildly subjective, I won't bet)
