Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5)
IAOne-Off4aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 79.9%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 41 minutes
8 avr. 25, 19:50 UTC31 déc. 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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KalshiRègles
Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander
- Must be a state of the art model, used by millions of people, not just a research project.
- Update 2025-07-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they will likely defer to Scott Alexander's interpretation if he writes about this topic in the future.
- Otherwise, the guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are unable to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
- The creator stated this would likely include cases where:
- The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text).
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 80% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2030.
- Comment Will a SotA AI model be trained to think in "neuralese" instead of human language by the end of 2030? (ACX, AI 2027 #5) est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Prediction #5 from: My Takeaways From AI 2027 - by Scott Alexander