Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 79.9%
Prévisionnistes
13
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète23 oct. 25, 11:38 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
SOAI#2: A major AI lab leans back into open-sourcing frontier models to win over the current US administration
Manifold MarketsWill a major AI lab announce that the weights of one of its models were compromised in a cyberattack before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer Yudkowsky work for any major AI-related entity by 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketRègles
OpenAI partnering with SpaceX to help design rockets
- GDM announces that it is working on designing rockets
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 80% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will a major AI lab enter the aerospace industry by EOY 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : OpenAI partnering with SpaceX to help design rockets