Prévision communautaire actuelle
Kanye West 100%En tête parmi 125 options
Prévisionnistes
195
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète21 janv. 25, 16:40 UTC31 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Trump do the Roman / Nazi Salute by the end of his 2nd term?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen during Trump's second term?
Manifold MarketsWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsWill a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsHow many articles will Trump be impeached on in his second term?
KalshiHow many times will Trump be impeached in his second term?
KalshiRègles
Only salutes on or after January 21st 2025 count.
- I will resolve according to my judgment, based on credible video or photo/eyewitness evidence.
- Think of a "clear and convincing" but not necessarily "beyond a reasonable doubt" standard of evidence.
- For reference, Elon Musk's Nazi salute on January 20th would have counted and not been close.
- Salutes before inauguration day 2029 will count even if the named outcome is no longer acting as president.
- Update 2025-21-01 (PST): - The scope is global; salutes from any country are considered.
