Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleChuck Grassley 74%En tête parmi 11 options
Prévisionnistes
40
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète26 août 24, 15:23 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the next President of the United States die in office?
Manifold MarketsWill Putin die in office?
Manifold Markets2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
Feel free to add anyone who’s in power, or current running for one of the positions listed below.
- Each answer will Resolve YES if the person died in an eligible position of power, and NO if they aren’t in office at the time of their death.
- Eligible seats of power:
- US Congress-person (not state congress)
- State Governor
- President, VP, or Cabinet Member (see full list)
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsKALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16.7%
- Gavin Newsom13.5%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 193,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 710,8 k €
KALSHIWhat will Trump say this week?
- TDS / Trump Derangement Syndrome99%
- Barack Hussein Obama99%
- Cuba / Cuban99%
+34 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,2 M €
- Volume 24h
- 584,6 k €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+1.3pt91.1%
- Republican Party-0.7pt8.9%
- Volume total
- 29,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 407,5 k €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt60%
- D-House, R-Senate30%
- Republicans sweep-0.6pt9%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 14,9 M €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.8pt3%
- April 300%
- June 300%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETFriedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany by which date?
- December+0.5pt21%
- October+0.5pt13%
- September 30,-0.3pt4%
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Brazil Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?
- Venezuela leader end of 2026?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which US politicians will die in office? 🇺🇸🗳️💀 ?
- Manifold Markets cote Chuck Grassley à 74% au 21 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which US politicians will die in office? 🇺🇸🗳️💀 sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which US politicians will die in office? 🇺🇸🗳️💀 doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Which US politicians will die in office? 🇺🇸🗳️💀 est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Feel free to add anyone who’s in power, or current running for one of the positions listed below.