Will a sitting US Supreme Court justice resign or die in office before 2027?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaine2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 86.7%
Prévisionnistes
21
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète21 juil. 26, 02:22 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Mitch McConnell resign or die before the end of his term in 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsTerm limit for US Supreme Court justices enacted in 2026?
FutuurWill a binding code of ethics for the US Supreme Court be passed in Congress in 2026?
FutuurRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if any sitting justice of the Supreme Court of the United States dies or officially vacates their seat (via retirement or resignation) on or before December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (ET).
- The market will resolve to NO if all nine current sitting justices remain in active office through the end of 2026.
- Key Definitions and Rules:
- Sitting Justices: The current nine justices are John Roberts, Clarence Thomas, Samuel Alito, Sonia Sotomayor, Elena Kagan, Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson.
- Resignation / Retirement: A justice must formally vacate their seat on or before the deadline.
