Prévision communautaire actuelle
Reform 40%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+4.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 27 minutes
28 avr. 26, 09:13 UTC31 déc. 26, 10:06 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Quebec General Election: Second Place
PolymarketWill Nigel Farage lead the Reform UK party into the next General Election?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.
- This market resolves YES for whichever party next moves into a clear second place by polling >=5% above every party other than whichever party is in first place, for a period of 14 consecutive days in the Politico Poll of Polls.
- If no party achieves a decisive second place by market close then this will resolve Other.
- If any other party approaches the second place zone I will add them as their own option, i.e. buying Other today will cover you for e.g. the Lib Dems approaching second place.
- Update 2026-04-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If there is a 4-way tie with no clear second place, the market will not resolve until market close, at which point it resolves Other.
- If two parties are both clearly 5% above the rest but close to each other, the creator will keep the market open until one party clearly takes second place.
Marchés ouverts
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- Jon Ossoff16%
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-3.1pt35.4%
- Édouard Philippe31.3%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
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KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Reform à 40% au 11 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Which UK party will next take a decisive second place in the polls? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : For nearly two months now, UK polling has had the Conservatives, the Greens, and Labour neck and neck, each sat at around 17%, each having equal claim to being second place after Reform.