Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Artemis III launch 77.5%En tête parmi 5 options
Artemis III launch 77.5%Prévisionnistes
16
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+0.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète10 août 24, 14:15 UTC1 sept. 29, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Artemis III flown with a crewed landing? x Will China land a person on the Moon before the US can return to the Moon?
Manifold MarketsWill there still be an Apollo moonwalker alive on the day the Artemis III crew walks on the moon?
Manifold MarketsWill Artemis III be flown with a crewed landing?
Manifold MarketsArtemis III launches before 2028?
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PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
[tweet]Update 2025-06-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the Artemis III option:
- A mission will count as Artemis III if it is officially designated as such, even if the nature of that mission changes radically from its original or current plans.
- Update 2025-09-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Starliner-2: Counts when NASA officially designates a mission as "Starliner-2".
- If no mission is designated "Starliner-2" (e.g., it's skipped or canceled), this outcome does not occur.
- New Glenn 15: Refers to the 15th flight of New Glenn (counting flights), not a specific named mission.
