Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2030 72.9%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard31 août 26, 19:37 UTC1 janv. 31, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Zr37dY5YPRT6s56jY/thomas-kwa-s-shortform?commentId=Pwc2SmyPi9u3maSsd
- Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the date on which Thomas Kwa officially ceases to be an employee of OpenAI (assuming that he has already signed the contract).
- Definition of "leaving": "Leaving" is defined as the termination of his employment contract with OpenAI, whether due to resignation, quitting, or termination.
- An internal transfer to a different team within OpenAI does not count as leaving, but transferring to an external organization or spin-off does.
- (Example: going to the OpenAI foundation would be considered leaving).
