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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
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  3. When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?
Manifold Markets

When will there be significant shipping interruptions in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

One-OffPolitiqueGéopolitiqueMiddle East19j
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15 0%
En tête parmi 6 options
Prévisionnistes

14

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 4 jours

Obsolète
29 mars 26, 11:4230 juin 26, 11:05

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-04-30
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-15
0%
Manifold Markets
By 2026-05-31
0%

Résultat choisi

By 2026-06-154%

Règles

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.

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Règles

When will there be a significant reduction in shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait?

Manifold Markets
  • Resolution Criteria
  • An option above will resolve to YES if, by the stated date (international standard date format), there is a reduction of 75% or more in all ships passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait for at least 7 consecutive days relative to the 7-day moving average for the prior year.
  • I will use data from IMF PortWatch to resolve the market.
  • Iran has currently restricted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of the war between Iran and the US and Israel, putting strains on world supplies of oil, fertilizer, liquefied natural gas and other important commodities.
  • The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait is another significant choke point in shipping.