Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleLater than 2032 58.2%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+8.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète21 juil. 25, 00:54 UTC21 janv. 33, 00:44 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will a human land on Mars before California starts high-speed rail?
KalshiWill the first person to land on Mars ever return to Earth?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a Starship first land and relaunch without being removed from the launch tower?
Manifold MarketsWill Starship land on the moon before Blue Origin does?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
KalshiSpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the earliest year in which a SpaceX Starship successfully lands on the Martian surface.
- A successful landing is defined as a Starship spacecraft touching down on Mars without catastrophic failure, as confirmed by official SpaceX communications or reputable news outlets.
- If no such landing occurs by the end of 2032, the market will resolve to "the named outcome." If SpaceX announces the cancellation of the Starship Mars program, the market will resolve to "Never."
- Elon Musk, CEO of SpaceX, has outlined ambitious plans for Mars exploration using the Starship spacecraft.
- In September 2024, Musk announced intentions to launch uncrewed Starship missions to Mars in 2026, aiming to test landing capabilities.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.2pt94%
- Yes-1.2pt6%
- Volume total
- 19,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 263 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-10.0pt69%
- December 15,-13.5pt65%
- November 30,-12.0pt49%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+1.0pt91%
- Before Mar 1, 2027+2.0pt88%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt83%
+9 résultats de plus
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+9.0pt34%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+6.0pt27%
- Before Apr 1, 202717%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 7 M €
KALSHIWhen will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
- Before Jan 1, 202878%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Volume total
- 13 k €
- Volume 24h
- 8,1 k €
POLYMARKETDiscord IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2027-16.1pt62.6%
- 8–11B+6.7pt10.1%
- 11–14B-0.1pt8.1%
+5 résultats de plus
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will crypto market structure legislation become law?
- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- What will Anthropic's IPO valuation be?
- When will OpenAI officially announce an IPO?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Starship land on Mars? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Later than 2032 à 58% au 20 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Starship land on Mars? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Starship land on Mars? doit être résolu le 21 janvier 2033.
- Comment When will Starship land on Mars? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria