Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2027 34.7%En tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
60
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète22 mai 25, 18:07 UTC1 janv. 35, 19:03 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the next French presidential elections (2027) take place without any major democratic problems because of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
PolymarketBen Pasternak jailed?
PolymarketPoland: Will Zbigniew Ziobro be jailed by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
A year resolves positively if someone is incarcerated because they were snitched on by an AI that was their AI assistant, in that year.
- All subsequent years resolve No. As in, an agent autonomously, deliberately telling authorities or others about something the user did or is planning to do, in a way that leads to that user's arrest
- [image]Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that information from AI system cards (such as the one shared for Claude 4, detailing AI behaviors or reporting protocols) is relevant for interpreting the market's resolution criteria, especially regarding an AI autonomously and deliberately snitching.
- This aspect was unintentionally omitted from the original description.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - It is considered snitching if the AI assistant is instructed in its underlying prompt (e.g., by its developers) to flag suspicious individuals for review and then does so.
Marchés ouverts
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- 224,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 160,5 k €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 344,9 k €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 résultats de plus
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2027 à 35% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2035.
- Comment When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : A year resolves positively if someone is incarcerated because they were snitched on by an AI that was their AI assistant, in that year.